Is not Appalachia, even in part...
HE WASN'T ON THE BALLOT OR CAMPAIGNED THERE!
If you don't get why the results there are wrong, you will never understand the meaning of the word fair.
I think you misunderstand... I was refuting the talking point stated above that the Appalachian vote would affect Michigan in the GE. Obama will win MI.
sorry....:)
Florida. Or Massachusetts. Or Texas. Or California. Or Indiana, etc.
I suppose all these bigots posting anti-Appalachia diaries and comments have decided the Democratic nominee only needs highly-educated white people (and not all of them - my wife and I have four degree between us and are not Obama supporters) and 90% of African-Americans to win in November.
Their math is different from my math.
Obama is winning by every category. It is only in convoluted logic that Hillary is leading in anything.
There are polls that show 50% of Americans just wont vote for Hillary Clinton no matter what. She hasn't broken 50% in a national poll against McCain, especially since she has gone negative.
She is not more electable, a divided convention ensures our failure, she is losing by the rules she approved.
I think she would lose in November as well. But I think she'd garner more electoral votes than he would.
I'll vote for whomever leaves the convention as the candidate. But if I were a betting man my money would be on McCain in November, to America's severe detriment.
If Obama wins the white vote in Oregon, will that chnge any of your thoughts?
Obama wins the white vote in plenty of states. But he hasn't won the votes of whites without college degrees anywhere except Wisconsin.
If he wins those in Oregon, is it a game changer?
It's a general lack of connection with the non-black working class.
You can't be saying Obama won't win CA and MA in the fall. He'll do very well in both states and maybe not bad in the other two.
in November after McCain spends the summer telling everybody how green he is. Remember also that McCain is essentially a west coast guy and a "maverick" (at least according to the media). That stuff will play quite well in CA.
Except,
1. The know dems do better.
2. No ones paying attention to him yet.
3. If we end this in June, we will have time and resources taking him down.
You sure about that? Haven't CA Dems elected a Republican Governor in six of the past eight elections? Any state that will elect a Republican Governor may also vote for a Republican President. Doesn't mean they WILL, but the possibility is certainly there.
NY has voted in republican governors for the past 2-3 decades. And we vote democrat in the presidential elections by overwhelming #s.
There is absolutely no way you can correlate state votes with national votes.
There's nothing to find out. It aint happening.
between confidence and hubris.
B/c I do and I will guarantee you that Obama will win it. Dianne Feinstein is a little too conservative for us, we're not voting for John McCain. Worry another state. CA is a lock.
I know California is a complicated state, and all Californians do not act alike. I know California sends people like Duncan Hunter and Darrell Issa and Ronald Reagan to DC.
Look, I know CA is a generally liberal state - much more so than mine. My point is we cannot take any state for granted. There are A LOT of republicans in Orange County and San Diego.
in L.A. and San Francisco. You also forgot that our capital Sacramento has been conservative in the past, but is trending more blue. You're right we do send those assholes and we send them less and less every two years. We have 53 congresspeople and we send around 30 Democrats to Washington. And that does not even count our two liberal Senators (maybe not too liberal in Feinstein).
This state is dark blue. We'll stay dark blue and we'll give Barack Obama a huge Democratic turnout. McCain could spend the next 5 months here and Obama never come and we'll still crush McCain by ten points. I hope he spends that much time here.
It just isn't. The only reason why R's do even as well as they do in the General is because we are so used to not really counting that Californians don't turn out like they could.
Any whiff that the GOP is even reasonably possible and things will look a lot different here.
And remember that R's haven't bothered to campaign in CA. McCain will.
I hope McCain campaigns hard in CA. Against Obama, he'll have limited resources and lots of places he needs to be. If he focuses on CA, he'll still probably lose, and he risks letting Obama gain on him in places like TX, VA, NC, etc., where Obama is polling very close.
is less absurd than Obama (or Clinton) winning TX, NC or VA.
Considering the massive turnout of new democrat registrations and the fall of republicans all over the country, especially in the congress?
No, what is absurd is thinking that the republicans will GAIN anywhere in the electoral map with McCain in the fall.
This is of course if Hillary Clinton is a good democrat and works her tail off for Obama as she has said she will. If she does, it'll make his win in the fall that much easier.
The only way we win one of the states you mentioned is to put one of their own at the top of the ticket. The past several decades have not been good to us in those states.
I don't agree at all. If you look at polling, Obama has recently shown very competitive in all 3 of these states. Separately, if you look at Intrade.com where you can bet on these things, the odds show approximately (you have to approximate because the latest bet does not necessarily reflect the odds now):
CA - 90/10 D VA - 53/47 R NC - 75/25 R TX - 90/10 D
This is pretty consistent with the polling and the national commentary as well.
I think Obama is going to win VA (it's been trending bluer), but I don't expect him to win NC or TX. But if McCain neglects them to try to win CA, Obama might be able to win even those.
& NC Senate races? They have the Democratic Senate candidates within 5 of the Republican. There is similar polling showing that Obama is making those states competitive and VA is within 1. In CA, both Hillary and Obama crush McCain in polling. Every one of statewide elected officials in CA but two are Democrats. We have nearly 2/3's of the state legislature and good chance to gain that 2/3s majority in November. You should know something about a state before you talk about it. I will bet you a million dollars that this state will be blue (perhaps very dark blue) in November.
for a November election. Just don't.
but I also don't believe a person whose trying to tell me with no evidence that we are going to lose CA. I know CA and we will not lose it. Not this year or in a long time.
is that if you think any state is a slam-dunk you're delusional.
that you are not listening to me. We ARE going to WIN California. It's not a question. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. I'll probably campaign here, but not that much, b/c we're going to crush it. It's like questioning whether the Republicans are going to win Utah. We can try to win it. We can work our ass off, but it's just not going to happen. And McCain's not going to win California.
Hubris, thy screen name is nklein.
but for all your worrying it's not going to change anything. You don't live here; I do and I can guarantee you we'll win. Just trust me and move on.
That'll be easier when you stop electing people like Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor.
we're going to elect a Democrat president in CA and if you don't believe that, then I can't force you, but it's a fact.
Haven't we tried that before? Didn't work out so well in 1972, did it?
EVEN IF YOU ARE RIGHT that Barack will not win these blue collar Dems voting for Hillary, I think you are missing three points when comparing him to McGovern:
1) McGoverns coalition is bigger now than it was then, and
2) Obama does very well with Independents and Republicans versus how McGovern did, and
3) Obama will inspire turnout far more McGovern
Polling right now shows this supposed "McGovern coalition" ahead of McCain. And the polling doesn't address great turnout for the Dems (as it certainly appears right now), and the likelihood that some (but not all or maybe even most) of Hillary supports saying now they will vote for McCain or are undecided will ultimately vote for Barack.
There are still more Reagan Democrats than McGovern Democrats. Blacks and educated whites are still far outnumbered by blue collar whites. Since Obama is going to be the nominee, here's hoping blue collar turnout is depressed, because they will be voting Republican.
Totally disagree with you that Obama would need depressed turnout among blue collar whites to win. Why did Childers win in MS when they were trying to tie Obama/Wright around him?
He doesn't need to win this demographic just not get killed by it. And please don't forget that McCain is running on an economic platform that continues the Bush regime, and even among blue collar whites this is not popular. Obama will win in Nov.
He did go out of his way to say he was NOT endorsed by Obama.
